Trans-Pacific Leads N. America Air Cargo, +13%

· Overall trend: Trans-Pacific resilience persists. China–US volumes rose 13% year-on-year, and North American carriers sustained positive demand growth. The trans-Pacific remains the strongest growth corridor.

· Rate trend: Rates have eased month-on-month since their May peak but stay elevated year-on-year, with trans-Pacific rates up 2% MoM.

· Demand trend: Demand remains in positive territory; US-bound volumes are up 13% YoY. The e-commerce front-loading effect is still present but gradually fading.

· Policy impact: The policy backdrop centers on U.S. country-specific tariff adjustments and the EU's scrapping of the low-value de minimis exemption (July 1). The former lifts U.S.-lane rates; the latter indirectly redirects capacity toward the trans-Pacific.

· September outlook: We are entering the pre-peak window (Black Friday / Cyber Monday stockbuilding, plus China's National Day Golden Week rush). Capacity will tighten and rates may bottom out and rebound — but U.S. tariff uncertainty and earlier front-loaded inventories are the biggest downside risks.

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I. August North America Market — Key Data at a Glance

1. North America Air Cargo Through Four Lenses

· Rates: Broadly “elevated YoY, modest MoM decline” — Asia-Pacific to U.S. spot rates are up 32% YoY at US$6.36/kg.

· Demand: Positive growth, strongest on the trans-Pacific; China to U.S. is up 13% YoY.

· Capacity: Capacity growth trails demand; North American carriers' available capacity (ACTK) is down 1.5% YoY (IATA, July print).

· Load factor: Rising utilization confirms a tightening supply-demand balance.

2. What's Driving the Shifts Across the Four Dimensions

1) Trans-Pacific AI hardware, semiconductor and high-end manufacturing shipments continue to provide a floor, compounded by a recovery in U.S.-lane e-commerce, supporting both rates and volumes. Other regions posted mild MoM declines as belly capacity recovered and new capacity was added.

2) The EU's July 1 removal of the low-value de minimis exemption triggered a sharp drop in China–Europe volumes (Hong Kong–Europe −30%); some Asian e-commerce capacity shifted to the trans-Pacific, structurally lifting U.S.-lane relative strength.

3) The U.S.–Iran conflict (since June) restricted Middle East / Gulf airspace, adding 1–3 hours of detours and absorbing capacity, indirectly tightening global effective supply.

4) Jet fuel up 82% YoY provides a cost floor that caps further rate declines.

3. August Data Across the Four Dimensions

Dimension	Metric	August value	MoM	YoY
Rate	Asia-Pacific → U.S. spot	US$6.36/kg	Broadly flat	+32%
Rate	China → U.S. spot	US$5.89/kg	Slight decline	+26%
Volume	China → U.S.	Volumes flat	Roughly flat	+13%
Fuel	Avg. jet fuel	US$146.93–163.87/bbl	−4.3%	+82%
Load factor	Global dynamic load factor	61%	—	+3 pp

4. Yitongda International — North America Key-Airport Booking Data & Trends

Yitongda International's LAX direct service at approx. RMB 40/kg (approx. US$5.6) tracks authoritative Northeast Asia–North America spot rates almost exactly. JFK / ORD direct services at RMB 46–47/kg run slightly above China-origin overall levels, reflecting an East Coast gateway premium. Our proprietary data matches authoritative rates in both direction and magnitude, mutually confirming the trans-Pacific picture of “holding at elevated levels, with the East Coast slightly outpacing the West Coast.”

Figure 1. Yitongda North America three-hub weekly booking-rate trend (RMB/kg, August 2026)

II. August North America Air Cargo — Overall Volume

The trans-Pacific remains North America's strongest growth corridor, with China (incl. Hong Kong)–U.S. volumes up 13% YoY. North American cargo airports show a “four integrator / transshipment hubs + three gateways” structure. ORD / LAX / JFK serve as the Midwest / West Coast / East Coast gateways — comparable in scale but diverging in growth. The trans-Atlantic runs capacity-loose, Latam is steady, and Middle East-related routes face geopolitical disruption. The overall picture: “trans-Pacific strong, trans-Atlantic weak, regional gateways stable.”

Airport	Role	Volume	Rank / YoY
ORD Chicago	Midwest hub	2.13M tonnes	+2.5%
LAX Los Angeles	West Coast gateway	2.07M tonnes	−4.8%
JFK New York	East Coast international gateway	1.46M tonnes	−6.1%

III. August North America Air Cargo — Capacity Status

August's North American capacity picture is shaped by three threads — “trans-Pacific tightness, trans-Atlantic looseness, and Middle East-related reallocation” — with geopolitics remaining the single biggest disruptor.

1. Route Shifts

Trans-Pacific (Asia–North America): Driven by AI / semiconductor / high-end manufacturing cargo, capacity keeps concentrating on this corridor.

Trans-Atlantic (Europe–North America): Summer passenger belly-capacity recovery brings loose supply; the rate of decline is narrowing.

2. Carrier Capacity Adjustments

1) Capacity reallocation: Some carriers shifted freighter capacity originally serving e-commerce toward high-value goods (electronics, AI hardware). Europe lanes contracted under de minimis pressure, while the trans-Pacific added capacity on resilient demand.

2) Cathay Cargo deferred the restart of its Dubai and Riyadh routes, taking a cautious stance on Middle East network recovery; trans-Pacific freighter capacity (Northeast Asia origin) is up 16% YoY.

3. Geopolitical and Cost Factors

1) Fuel shock: Jet fuel up 82% YoY; carriers broadly apply dynamic fuel surcharges, providing rigid cost support to rates.

2) Weather disruptions: Late-July to early-August West Coast heatwaves imposed weight restrictions, and Asia-Pacific typhoons caused over 1,000 flight cancellations around Shanghai, briefly squeezing trans-Pacific capacity.

IV. August North America Air Cargo — Demand

Outbound (China → North America) demand is corroborated by both Yitongda's three-hub (LAX / JFK / ORD) actual bookings and authoritative corridor volumes: China–U.S. is up 13% YoY and Asia-Pacific–U.S. up 4%–5%, all in positive growth. Inbound (North America → China) remains structurally weak on the China–U.S. trade imbalance, with no publicly available single-month volume data.

Lane / Airport	August demand	YoY	MoM
China → U.S.	Positive volume growth, slowing from +19–20% in May–June	+13%	Flat within month
Asia-Pacific → U.S.	Positive volume growth, led by double-digit semiconductor / AI pull	+4–5%	Broadly flat
N. America → China (NE Asia)	Structurally soft	—	—
N. America → Southeast Asia	Soft	—	—

V. August Policies Affecting North America Air Cargo

1. North America Local Policy

1) U.S. country-specific tariff adjustments: Triggered forward shipments by importers; August volumes began easing to +13%, but policy uncertainty remains the core of U.S.-lane volatility.

2) The U.S. de minimis impact already showed up in July 2026 as a recovery — “China–U.S. e-commerce volumes +23% YoY” — supporting U.S.-lane e-commerce demand.

3) FAA / operational: No major new rules in August; carrier fuel surcharges were raised dynamically per the IATA jet-fuel index — a market move, not new regulation.

2. China's Policy Toward North America and Indirect Effects

1) China's exports to the U.S. are tied to U.S. tariff policy; shipment cadence fluctuates with U.S. policy expectations. The RMB exchange rate and export pace jointly affect U.S.-lane slot bookings.

2) The EU's July 1 removal of the €150 de minimis exemption (flat €3 per-item duty), though not a North America direct policy, redirected some Asian e-commerce capacity and volume to the trans-Pacific, indirectly lifting U.S.-lane strength and driving capacity reallocation.

3) Chinese carriers / forwarders shifted e-commerce capacity toward high-value goods (AI, semiconductors, electronics), optimizing the trans-Pacific cargo mix.

3. Geopolitical / Energy Policy (Spillover to North America)

The U.S.–Iran conflict (the U.S. and Israel's June action against Iran) triggered Middle East airspace controls and detours, raising global fuel and capacity costs and, through capacity redistribution, indirectly affecting trans-Pacific supply and rates.

VI. September North America Air Cargo — Policy Outlook & Rationale

1) U.S. tariff policy remains the biggest uncertainty and may keep triggering forward shipments and rate / volume volatility; if the adjustment pace slows, the U.S. lane could revert to steady restocking demand.

2) Peak season is approaching (Black Friday / Cyber Monday, plus China's National Day Golden Week Oct 1–7 rush); capacity tightening and a rate bottoming-out rebound look more likely. Yitongda's Aug 31–Sep 6 week already showed “Black Friday stockbuilding pulling demand, East Coast tighter than West Coast on space, prices stable.”

3) Elevated fuel keeps carriers' fuel surcharges in place, with the cost side supporting a rate floor and limiting further downside.

4) E-commerce flows: Europe lanes remain pressured by de minimis; some volume may keep shifting to U.S. lanes / sea-air. The divergence between high-end and general cargo on the U.S. lane persists.